New modelling shows extinction cascades caused by land use and climate change

A new tool developed by European and Australian scientists enabling unparalleled modelling of interconnected species loss shows cascading extinctions are unavoidable, and that the Earth will lose some 10% of its animals and plants by 2050, rising to 27% by 2100.

Using one of Europe’s most-powerful supercomputers, European Commission scientist Dr Giovanni Strona also of the University of Helsinki and Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University used the tool to create synthetic Earths complete with virtual species and more than 15,000 food webs, to predict the interconnected fate of species that will likely disappear from the ravages of climate and land-use changes.

The tool presents a grim prediction of the future of global diversity, confirming beyond doubt that the world is in the throes of its 6th mass extinction event.

The two scientists say past approaches to assessing extinction trajectories over the coming century have been stymied by not incorporating co-extinctions — that is, species that go extinct because other species on which they depend succumb to climate change and/or changes to the landscape.

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